Ocean scientists in the Gulf of Mexico have found giant plumes of oil coagulating at up to 1,300 metres below the surface, raising fears that the BP oil spill may be larger than had been thought and that it might create huge “dead zones”.

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There is speculation that the plumes, first reported by the New York Times, might be forming as a result of BP’s use of dispersants injected close to the source of the spillage at the sea floor. The technique has never before been used, and scientists are now wondering whether the dispersants are causing the oil to coagulate into relatively large clumps which are then heavier than water and remain suspended below the surface.

The well contains 50 million barrels of oil, and so far efforts to stem the flow have all failed. Now, it emerges, the techniques used to ease the environmental damage caused by the spillage may be exacerbating its environmental impact.

The US Center for Biological Diversity has an excellent summary of the facts surrounding the Deepwater Horizon spill here.

Seriously, though, Uncivilisation looks like a very sober affair indeed. Competing with Hay on 28-30 May, the event is essentially a response to what its organisers see as ‘a sense that civilisation as we have known it is coming to an end; brought down by a rapidly changing climate, a cancerous economic system and the ongoing mass destruction of the non-human world.’ It’s a festival of ‘music and writing, thinking and doing’, and its speakers include George Monbiot and Alastair McIntosh. The Dark Mountain Project, the people behind the festival, contend that our current way of life simply isn’t sustainable. And that we are already doomed. Fundamentally, the literature reads, capitalism is not compatible with a sustainable lifestyle:

“the economic system we rely upon cannot be tamed without collapsing, for it relies upon … growth in order to function”

I doubt that many people would agree with their prediction of the imminent collapse of civilisation (not even Monbiot, as it happens), but The Dark Mountain Project are basically just ahead of the curve – even if it is by a century or two. Everybody knows that growth simply cannot be sustained with finite resources; that all civilisations must crumble; that capitalism, one day, must fall. As easy as it is to accuse them of doom-mongering (which is kind of the point), the issues that they raise are entirely valid. A paradigm shift in our thinking towards life itself must be achieved if human civilisation is to continue.  And that’s a pretty sobering thought.

So the optimistic among us believe that the window of opportunity for change is still here (albeit not for long). But even if it wasn’t, that doesn’t make the portentous tone that prevails throughout their publicity any less amusing. The website’s been designed like it’s just blown out of a volcano, full of sober serifs, reds and oranges, and grungey, distressed effects. Lines like ‘UNCIVILISATION is a training camp for the unknown world ahead’ are the kind of cringey soundbites that leave the environmental movement open to ridicule. The outrageously pretentious manifesto, meanwhile, is… well, it’s actually a pretty good read. It’s just outrageously pretentious. I expect the festival itself to attract the sort of people who warm to this fatalistic (but ultimately pretty futile) outlook.

Anyway, while I might think it’s cheap to stir up excitement through a blend of grungey design and pithy turn of phrase, it’s probably better than slapping Thom Yorke in a headline slot and sitting around in a field, paralysed by a combination of anxiety for the future and an immense dose of ketamine.

Anyway, one party whose environmental policy has totally escaped my attention are Plaid Cymru. Their manifesto has been championed by the Guardian as a call for a green revolution, and their plans are ambitious, even if I don’t agree with all of them.

Plaid Cymru is planning a massive expansion of the renewable energy industry to create jobs. Whether or not they go as far as Labour AM Jane Davidson’s ambitions for a carbon negative Wales isn’t clear yet. They’d construct local, sustainable communities, self-reliant on energy where possible. They’d also roll out a national programme of home insulation to deal with the backlog of hard-to-heat homes in Wales.

They support the 40% cut in emissions below 1990 levels by 2020 (they are by no means alone here – this is a National Assembly decision requiring cross-party support). They of course support full devolution, which is crucial to obtain the power to build future power stations.

Plaid Cymru oppose waste incinerators. More interestingly, they don’t support nuclear power. Instead, they say:

We will support micro generation and other small-scale sustainable power generation schemes, including tidal, wave power, onshore and offshore wind, hydro and biomass. The move to large-scale renewable energy production in Wales must be speeded up if we are to achieve the required outcome in the necessary timetable.

My position on nuclear power is the same as Lovelock’s: I remain unconvinced that renewable energy is yet efficient enough to meet our energy demands within the necessary timetable. Nuclear is the only manageable option.

They also comment on the need to produce sustainable travel solutions to connect Wales to the world, notably in ‘cheaper and faster high-speed electric rail links from Wales to mainland Europe’. I don’t think domestic high-speed rail links are really necessary in a country our size, but I haven’t thought about links to mainland Europe before. I wonder what they hope these will achieve.

That’s it. You can read their answers in full to questions from the Guardian on everything from libel reform to alternative medicine here.

The document sets out the WAG Cabinet’s ambitions for low carbon energy in Wales. It places Wales in the context of the national pledge to cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 (Figure 2) and actually aims to significantly exceed this target. In basic terms, they plan a triple-pronged approach to developing a low carbon economy:

“First, we will maximise energy savings and energy efficiency in order to make producing the majority of the energy we need from low carbon sources more feasible and less costly.

Second, our energy needs in a modern society will remain considerable, and must be met securely from low carbon sources. We will move to resilient low carbon energy production via indigenous (and thus secure) renewables, on both a centralised and localised basis.

Third, we will ensure that this transition to low carbon maximises the economic renewal opportunities for practical jobs and skills, strengthens and engages our research and development sectors, promotes personal and community engagement and helps to tackle deprivation and improve quality of life.”

So basically, the move to a low carbon economy will save money, save energy and provide fresh economic opportunities for Wales. No plan of action is particularly useful without targets, so they’ve also outlined two aims:

i)          To produce up to twice as much energy annually by 2050 as we use today

ii)        To meet all local energy needs through low carbon electricity production by 2050

The rest of the document touches on issues from Copenhagen to devolution, highlighting the economic advantages of renewable energy -  ‘Energy efficiency investment has one of the highest coefficients of employment to spend of any area’ – and pointing to wind and marine renewable resources as Wales’ strong points (more on that later).

It goes on to list the impact on the average person’s carbon budgets (a reduction from nine tones of CO2 to 6 tonnes) – see Figure 3. To meet this, they’d need to:

Meet more of their energy needs from low-carbon power.

Live in well-insulated homes with efficient boilers and advanced heating controls.

Purchase energy-efficient appliances and use these on low-carbon cycles (e.g. low temperature washing and dishwashing).

Work in energy-efficient offices with power and heating from low carbon sources.

Drive more carbon-efficient cars, including hybrids, electric cars or plug-in hybrids with charging infrastructure at home, at work and in public places.

Drive in an eco-friendly manner (e.g. not carrying excess weight in the car) and within the existing speed limit.

Plan journeys

At this point, the document is in danger of drifting into flippant idealism – exactly how do the WAG plan to get people to ‘drive in an eco-friendly manner’? The document makes a point of tackling a ‘backlog of hard-to-heat homes’ to ‘create jobs, encourage skills, improve local areas and directly reduce fuel poverty,’ although there is no mention of whether this will be funded/subsidised by the council.

The document makes the interesting point that the WAG can’t actually secure consent for a large power station (although this decision has been devolved to Scotland). Check out this table:

So the future of a Carbon Negative Wales, realistically, seems to depend upon decisions made by the UK government – which is obviously not ideal.

Next up, there’s a long list of actions to be made in order to produce low carbon electricity on a large scale, some of them with targeted dates for completion and others without.

The document then moves to its nuclear policy. It is decidedly anti-nuclear:

• We remain of the view that the high level of interest in exploiting the huge potential for renewable energy reduces the need for other, more hazardous, forms of low carbon energy and obviates the need for new nuclear power stations.

It shrugs its shoulders at the issue of the Wylfa site power station: ‘The decision as to whether a new nuclear power station is built on the existing Wylfa site is a matter for the UK government and the IPC planning process.’

There’s a good graph on Wales’s sustainable renewable energy potential in Appendix 1 which outlines the delivery dates for different types of renewable energy.

The Verdict

There’s a lot of information here – and an awful lot of good intentions. It’s presented well, too. But despite serving well as a manifesto, its seeming lack of specific targets and concrete proposals means that, on its own, it carries little weight.

Things that need investigating:

Obviously, what will the WAG do next? Which of the aims will actually be turned into targets? And which will be met?

How will the WAG deal with the ‘backlog of hard-to-heat homes’?

Delivery dates for Wales’ renewable energy sources: are these feasible? And if so, will they deliver the depth of cuts necessary?

How deliverable is nuclear power? Is it a short term option, even if the WAG are reluctant to consider it one?

It’s the Welsh Assembly Government’s Energy Policy Statement, dated March 2010, which you can find (with all annexes) here. Curiously, it’s gone almost entirely unreported by WalesOnline. All I could find about it was this business news piece by Chris Kelsey.

It outlines the WAG’s vision for renewable energy:

Based on Wales’ natural advantages, our aim will be to renewably generate up to twice as much electricity annually by 2025 as we use today. By 2050, at the latest, we want to meet almost all of our local energy needs, whether for heat, electrical power or vehicle transport, by low carbon electricity production.

Generating twice as much electricity annually by 2025 would certainly make Wales a carbon negative principality; however, it’s worth noting that the blurb says ‘up to twice as much’, and not ‘at least twice as much’. Here’s some more:

Wales once led the world in carbon-based energy. Our goal now is to do the same for low carbon
energy. This is a challenging but exciting and vital agenda. We are committed to work with all sectors
and across all aspects of the Assembly Government’s responsibilities within a very strong sustainable
development framework in order to make it a reality.

It’s an ambitious document, but a lack of specific targets is the first thing that jumps out. I’m going to rake through it over the next few days and share the results on this blog.

It’s partly a plug for the Welsh Built Environment Forum, but given that the way in which we construct and use our homes and other buildings accounts for 45% of our total carbon emissions in Wales, it’s essential that it gets some exposure. The post focuses on how Wales can develop its built environment sector to become an even bigger part of the Welsh economy:

If we accept that the green economy is here to stay we can safely assume that those with the skills to embrace this challenging agenda are the ones likely to benefit most when the upturn finally starts to gather pace. In fact, innovation and skills linked to the “green agenda” can help fuel the economic recovery in Wales.

Creating energy efficient buildings, too, is going to be crucial to reducing our national carbon footprint – and that’s going to be no mean feat:

the target date for achieving an 80% cut in carbon emissions has been set at 2050. In Wales, that means continuous and sustained reductions of 3% each and every year for 40 years.

It’s not quite a call to arms, but Chris makes a case for building an eco-friendly construction sector that will create jobs and, at the same time, reduce Wales’s carbon footprint:

By developing leading-edge skills in green design, construction and maintenance and management, we can lay the foundation for a new generation of high-performing businesses that can make a big impact, not just in Wales, but right across Britain and further afield.

There are already many examples of green innovation in the sector in Wales. This pioneering approach needs to become the norm and indeed the hallmark of Welsh firms in this sector. If we can encourage and support Welsh businesses to become expert in emerging areas of sustainable construction, such as energy-efficient structures driven by solar or geo-thermal installations or photovoltaic technology, we can help steal a march on competitors and win substantial new business for the Welsh economy.

The capital is making steps in the right direction. Cardiff’s brand new central library, which opened last year, was the first building in the city to receive a BREEAM rating of excellent, which basically means that it saves 20% on CO2 emissions compared to buildings produced under usual building regulations.

There’s a  meatier Welsh Assembly Government document here about Built Environment and Climate Change that I stumbled across today. I’ll be blogging about that tomorrow.

The emails had been seen by some critics as evidence of a ‘smoking gun’, suggesting that the scientists had attempted to prevent scientific data from being released, or even to destroy material that was subject to a freedom of information request.

It’s worth noting that the inquiry doesn’t look into whether the scientists had attempted to destroy or conceal material subject to a FOI request. What the inquiry shows is that, whatever these email exchanges may have suggested, the actual scientific research performed by the UEA scientists was accurate and valid:

At a press conference earlier today Lord Oxburgh said, “Whatever was said in the emails, the basic science seems to have been done fairly and properly,” although his panel did criticise the scientists for not using the best statistical techniques at times.

The report concluded: “We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic Research Unit and had it been there we believe that it is likely that we would have detected it. Rather we found a small group of dedicated if slightly disorganised researchers who were ill-prepared for being the focus of public attention. As with many small research groups their internal procedures were rather informal.”

The hacked climate emails first broke the news in November 2009.

This is how they describe the Carbon Lite Cardiff Action Plan in the PR they sent over:

Engaging the community of Cardiff, further reduction of energy use in existing and new buildings, increasing both recycling and composting, increasing the use of sustainable modes of transport and increasing the percentage of renewable energy are just some of the key areas highlighted in the Action Plan. Monitoring will be carried out by the Carbon Lite Working Group.

It seems to be an awareness raising exercise more than anything, with a lack of specific targets. But we shall see.

The EU Covenant of Mayors offers more substance in the form of its promise to reduce city-wide CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020:

Signing the Covenant is a commitment by the Council to go beyond the objectives set by the EU for 2020, which include reducing city-wide CO2 emissions by 20%. A Sustainable Energy Action Plan must be produced by the Council, along with the creation of a number of Energy Days, in partnership with both the EU and other stakeholders. These are based around further engagement with the community and will aid work already being undertaken as part of the Carbon Lite Cardiff Action Plan.

It’ll be interesting to see how they plan to make these cuts in emissions.

This blog aims to examine the feasibility of carbon negative Wales and to scrutinise Wales’s environmental performance.